On Saturday, the 15th of August, 2026, the people of Osun will go to the polls to elect who steers the ship of governance in the state.
Osun State has a unique electoral cycle stemming from court verdicts which altered its electoral calendar from the country’s general elections. However, the law permits off-cycle elections in Nigeria.
Therefore, 15th August, 2026, is another time for the emergence of a new leadership in the Osun State’s Government House.
There are about fifteen political parties gunning for the number one position in the state, but given the fierce competition between the Accord and APC, the election is adjusted to be a two-horse race between the Accord and the APC.
Could it be Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, the incumbent Governor of the state, who until recently was a member of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and defected as a result of the leadership crisis that rocked the party, or Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC)?
As it stands, the political atmosphere in Osun is tense, with pockets of violence here and there. It was reported that attacks are occurring across the board, which calls for great concern. Our elections over the years have always created uncertainty and chaos because of the competitive nature of the polls.
In a bid to curtail the excesses of politicians and their supporters, and in order to maintain peace and tranquillity during our election, the National Peace Committee, led by Bishop Hassan Kukah of the Catholic Sokoto Diocese and former Head of State Abdulsalami Abubakar, always commits political parties to sign a pact for peaceful conduct during and after the election, which has become a ritual and has also been signed in Osun State. Whether it will be maintained or adhered to is something we will see during and after the elections.
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What Are the Chances of the Candidates?
Usually, elections create room for permutations and expectations. The question is: who stands the chance of winning or coming out victorious?
Ademola Adeleke is the sitting Governor and usually has an advantage, given the pattern of elections in Nigeria, with the power of incumbency working in one’s favour. Though he is facing stiff competition from the candidate of the APC, Bola Oyebamiji, whom a lot of people believe is being backed by the Federal Government of the APC.
The dilemma here is that there is state might at the state level, and there is a federal might. One will be forced to ask: whose might will prevail at the end of the day?
The incumbent Governor has come under great criticism for underperformance in governance, which he also tries to defend, arguing that his government is a shift from the administration of his immediate predecessor, Gboyega Oyetola, who is the current Minister of Blue and Marine Economy. He argued that he had overperformed, and it can be seen from the support and love of the people.
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However, he was also criticised for abandoning governance to dancing, as was made viral recently by the Governor of Edo State, Monday Okpebholo. A statement that got a reprimand from the Governor’s nephew, the pop star Davido. In his reaction, Davido called out Governor Okpebholo and chided him for his SSCE results and inefficiencies.
Many believed the power of incumbency, the support of Osun people, the goodwill Governor Adeleke has enjoyed, and the influence of Davido will help him in his emergence as the next Governor of the state to further his eight-year term.
Also, it appears Ademola Adeleke has an advantage, given the fact that the candidate of the Allied People’s Party (APM), Adebayo Simon Adewale, and that of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), have stepped down and endorsed him. It is believed that this will boost his chances, but that will be seen in the election.
On the other hand, Bola Oyebamiji of the APC is hinging on the performance of the Governor beyond his influence and that of his nephew, Davido. But many believe that, being an APC candidate and with the party at the Centre, Oyebamiji might likely enjoy the backing of the Federal Government to win the number one position of the state.
Reports also has it that the candidate of APGA also stepped down for Bola Oyebamiji. Will this boost his chances? This will also be seen in the election, as the people of Osun hold the will to make either of these two the Governor of the state.
Sunny Onaji
On-Air Personality
Silverbird Rhythm 94.7 FM, Abuja.
